Bonjour,
The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike has brought mortgage rates back into the conversation. A Fed hike does not translate directly into an equal increase in mortgage rates, and I would not build a home purchase around the hope of refinancing later. The payment needs to work today.
Here in Napa, buyers are still buying. Through September 27, closed sales were up 15% from the same period last year, and pending sales were up 16%. Yet the median sale price was down 4.7%, and homes were taking longer to sell. Buyers are participating, but they are paying close attention to value.
So, is this a buyer’s market or a seller’s market? Neither across the board. Napa is broadly balanced. A well-priced, well-presented home can still attract strong interest. A home that has sat, needs work, or started at an ambitious price may give buyers room to negotiate.
If you’re buying, get clear on your budget and the kind of home you would be happy to own for the long term. Watch new listings, but revisit homes that have been on the market for a while. When you find one worth pursuing, we can compare a lower purchase price with a seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown. We’ll also look carefully at inspections, insurance, and repair costs before deciding what to offer. The strongest offer fits that property, your finances, and the seller’s priorities.
If you’re selling, the first weeks on the market matter. Through September 27, Napa homes spent an average of 78 days on the market, compared with 66 days over the same period last year. Year to date, homes sold for about 97% of their final list price, but 93% of their original asking price. In August, that gap was wider: 97% of final list price and 88% of original asking price.
That does not mean buyers negotiated 12% off at the offer table. Often, sellers adjusted the asking price before receiving an offer. The lesson is to price for the buyers shopping now, prepare the home to stand out, and respond to what the first weeks of showings tell us. A home drawing attention but no offers may need a change in price, presentation, or terms.
As we head into October, November, and December, I expect a more selective market. There may be fewer buyers competing, but there may also be fewer homes available. For both buyers and sellers, a property-specific strategy will matter more than trying to guess where rates or prices will be next spring.
I’ve put the local numbers, charts, and my outlook into a Napa Valley Market Insight report if you’d like a closer look.
À bientôt,
Florence