Napa’s Market Is Moving Again — Here’s What the Latest Numbers Tell Us
From the Desk of Florence Ropelewski
November 13th, 2025
Bonjour à tous,
After months of slowdown, Napa’s real estate scene is starting to stir again — and it’s no coincidence. The recent dip in mortgage rates has breathed fresh energy into the market. Buyers are re-engaging, sellers are testing the waters, and early numbers show momentum returning.
Rates Dropped — and the Market Responded
When 30-year mortgage rates began to ease in late September, the response was almost immediate.
In October:
- Pended sales jumped 23.4% from September
- Sold homes rose 21.8% year-over-year
- Absorption rate climbed from 13.3% in August to 20.1% in October
It’s the strongest surge we’ve seen since early 2022 — a clear sign that buyer confidence is coming back.
Buyers Are Back in Motion
Pending sales always tell the real story first. Napa’s most active months for new contracts over the past few years were:
- April 2022: 99 pendings (rates below 5%)
- April 2024: 67 pendings (brief rate dip)
- October 2025: 79 pendings (post-rate-drop rebound)
This fall’s activity doesn’t just feel seasonal — it’s a genuine sign of renewed energy driven by better financing options.
Inventory Is Holding, but the Balance Is Shifting
We’re not in a buyer’s market anymore. While months of inventory based on closed sales has held steady at 5.0 months, inventory based on pending sales dropped from 4.9 to 4.2 months this fall. That’s meaningful movement toward a more balanced market.
Sellers Are Starting to Step Forward
The “lock-in effect” — homeowners hesitant to give up low rates — has kept new listings scarce. But that’s slowly changing:
- October 2024: 54 new listings
- October 2025: 61 new listings
- October 2022: 63 new listings
It’s a subtle but important shift. Some sellers are ready to make their next move — whether that means downsizing, upsizing, or relocating within the valley.
The Market Feels Different — But Healthy
We’re not back to the wild days of 2021–2022, and that’s a good thing. Prices are steady, inventory is manageable, and absorption is improving. The data points to a measured rebound — not a crash recovery — and that’s what a sustainable market looks like.
What This Means for You
If you’re a buyer, this is your window to act strategically. The best homes are moving again, and waiting for a big price dip may not play in your favor.
If you’re a seller, the recent rate relief is bringing serious buyers back. You’re no longer listing into a quiet market — the energy is shifting, and opportunity is returning.
Napa’s real estate market is finding its rhythm again. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply exploring your options, now is the time to plan your next move intentionally — before the spring rush hits.
Ready to navigate Napa’s shifting market with confidence? Let’s talk strategy and next steps.
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Warmly,
Florence Ropelewski
Founder, Team Leader & Broker, L’AGENCE Napa Valley