2025 in Context: Prices, Demand & Supply Over 15 Years

2025 in Context: Prices, Demand & Supply Over 15 Years

From the Desk of Florence Ropelewski
December 4th, 2025

Bonjour a tous,

We’re at an interesting moment in the housing cycle. Rates have jumped around, inventory feels higher, open houses are busy some weekends and quiet the next—and it’s hard to tell if the market is cooling, crashing, or just quietly resetting.

That’s why I went back and looked at the last 15 years of local MLS data for Napa and asked a few simple questions: Which past year does 2025 most resemble? Have prices really fallen? Has demand actually slowed, or just normalized? Has supply truly opened up?

The answers tell a much clearer story than the headlines—and they matter whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on your home’s value.

So, where does 2025 really fit?

When you stack 2025 up against the last 15 years, it looks most like 2024—just with a bit more inventory and slightly firmer pricing.

On the activity side, year-to-date through late October we’ve seen:

• 538 closed sales in 2025, compared with 527 in 2024 and 522 in 2023.

• 577 homes pended in 2025, up from 558 in 2024 and 544 in 2023.

In other words, demand hasn’t disappeared; if anything, it’s a touch stronger than the last two years. What has changed is the balance between buyers and sellers.

Have prices crashed?

Short answer: no—and the data is pretty blunt about that.

So far in 2025, the average sold price in Napa is about $1.26M, up from roughly $1.22M in 2024, an increase of about 3% year-over-year.

If we zoom out over the full 15-year span, the change is even more striking. Back in 2011, the average sold price was in the mid-$400,000s. Today, it’s nearly three times higher. Even if we just look back ten years to around 2015, the average sold price was in the low-to-mid-$700,000s—so we’ve added roughly half a million dollars to the typical sale price over that decade.

Price per square foot tells the same story. In 2011, the average sold price per square foot was around $260. Today, we’re sitting in the mid-$600s per square foot, and 2025 is slightly higher than 2024 on that metric as well.

What has changed is leverage. In the peak years, homes often sold at or above list price. In 2025, the sale-to-original-list-price ratio has slipped to about 92%, down from 95% in 2024. That means buyers are negotiating more, but they’re negotiating off very high price levels, not fire-sale prices.

So no, prices haven’t crashed. They’ve plateaued at a high level and continue to edge up modestly.

Has demand really slowed?

This is where perception and data diverge.

Compared with the boom years—2012 through 2017, and then the pandemic surge—2025 absolutely feels calmer. Back then, annual closed sales often ran in the 800–950 range; this year we’re in the 500s. That’s a big difference.

But when you compare 2025 to the most recent “normal-ish” years, a different picture emerges:

• More homes are selling than in 2023 and 2024.

• More buyers are writing offers (pendings are up each year since 2023).

What has changed is how long it takes to get a home sold and how close to list price it closes:

• Average days on market has climbed from 37 days in 2022 to 44 in 2023, 59 in 2024, and now about 68 days in 2025.

• The sale-to-original-list-price ratio has slipped from the high-90% range in the early 2020s down to about 92% this year.

So yes, the frenzy has cooled, but the underlying demand is still there. Buyers are choosier and more patient, not gone.

Has supply really increased?

This is the biggest structural shift in 2025—and it’s the one most people feel walking through open houses and browsing online.

Looking at the year-to-date numbers through October:

• Homes for sale rose from 176 in 2023 to 259 in 2024, and up again to 333 in 2025.

• That makes 2025 the highest inventory year since 2011, when there were 489 homes for sale.

New listings have also picked up:

• 2023: 717 new listings

• 2024: 822 new listings

• 2025: 914 new listings so far

Still, those counts are below many of the pre-2020 years, when Napa regularly saw 1,000+ new listings.

So yes, supply has clearly opened up, but it’s not a flood or a distressed market situation. It’s more like we’ve backed away from the ultra-tight, post-pandemic inventory crunch toward a more historically normal—though still competitive—environment.

Which year is 2025 most like?

If I line up the key stats—number of homes for sale, new listings, sold and pended, prices, days on market, and negotiation room—the year that most closely resembles 2025 is 2024.

The differences between those two years are mostly in degree, not direction:

• Prices in 2025 are a bit higher than 2024.

• Inventory in 2025 is a bit higher than 2024.

• Buyers in 2025 are negotiating a bit more than in 2024.

You can think of 2025 as 2024 turned up a notch on both sides: more choices for buyers, and slightly better pricing for sellers who adapt to the new, less-frenzied reality.

What this all means if you’re thinking about making a move

For sellers:
You’re not “too late.” Prices are still near all-time highs, and 2025 is actually a touch higher than 2024. But it’s no longer a “list on Friday, 10 offers by Monday” environment. Buyers have more options, they’re taking more time, and they are negotiating. The homes that win are priced realistically from day one, show well, and are marketed aggressively.

For buyers:
You finally have more than a handful of homes to choose from. You can negotiate on price and terms—especially on properties that have been on the market a while—without having to bet against five other offers. Waiting for a dramatic crash, though, isn’t something the last 15 years of data support. Prices have proven surprisingly resilient and are still inching up.

If you’re curious where your own home or your preferred price range fits into this 15-year picture, I’m happy to break down a more tailored snapshot for you.

Ready to navigate Napa’s shifting market with confidence? Let’s talk strategy and next steps.

A bientot!